Dow Head & Shoulders. A Few Reasons Why Cities Are Better Survival Locations Than Rural Areas

by Evan on May 17, 2010

This week is a quickie…I’m doing a detox/clense this week to help boost the performance of my liver and intestines, but the lack of calories is making everything take longer to do. I’m going to touch on some of the bizzare news stories that came out this week, the instability in the stock market, and why surviving in urban areas may very well be better than on an isolated farm.

I’m always reminded when I have a limited calorie intake for a day or two how important it is to make plans and decisions when you’re well rested, fed, and not under stress. In other words, get your survival PLANS in order now, so that you can execute them when you’re tired, hungry, and stressed.

Sometimes I feel like I’m living in a parallel bizarro world.

Obama is trying to take over banking under the guize of “financial reform” (Incidentally, this could tear apart honest banks that support our current and former troops, like USAA.) The EPA is saying that “social justice” is central to their mission of protecting the environment, and somehow, GM thinks we should cheer for them just because they paid back a few billion dollars of the more than $50 BILLION bailout from the TARP program (not counting cash for clunkers).

Bizarre. Really bizarre. I guess if you say a lie loud enough and repeat it often enough, people will believe it.

At the same time, the stock market is going up…not as fast as the fed is printing money and increasing the money supply, but still pretty fast. Last year I did a video warning about the money supply when it was at 1.8 Trillion. Now it’s at almost 2.4 Trillion and climbing fast. I know that the “big money” on Wall Street is supposed to be controlled by a bunch of genius Harvard MBAs, but I think they’re missing the boat here like they did with subprime mortgages and credit default swaps.

Specifically, looking at charts of the Dow, we’re on the bad end of a “head and shoulders” pattern. Sorry for the “geek” speak…one school of thought in investing is that you can identifiy predictable patterns in the stock market and have a better than even shot of knowing what’s coming next.

One of these patterns is called “head and shoulders” and it looks like the outline of a sillouete target…it goes up on the left side, levels out or dips for awhile at the shoulder, pops up again pretty rapidly, levels off for the top of the head, then it drops, comes back up for awhile until it hits the other shoulder, and then drops like a rock.

We had the first shoulder in 2001. It peaked in 2007 only to drop to the collarbone in early 2009.

It appears as if we’re approaching the other shoulder.

What will make it tank? A natural disaster, a foreign attack, or the breakdown of any of the false economic props that I’ve talked about before could all cause a crash. With unemployment and underemployment as high as it is, this next drop will be painfull.

In short, you need to get prepared NOW…you need to become more self-reliant…you need to develop and strengthen local relationships so you have people you can depend on if things go south…and you need to do it all without making yourself a ripe target for the unprepared and the “entitled” masses.

You also need to have a solid plan in place for surviving right where you currently live…regardless of whether it’s a town of 5000 or 15 million. It might be a secondary plan if you have a stocked bug-out location, but you need to have a solid plan nailed down if you have to stay where you are.

The ironic thing is that cities are safer in some ways than isolated rural retreats.

As much as people talk about cities and towns burning to the ground and gangs taking control when “it” happens, the reality is that bad guys do this in rural areas too. Bad guys know that isolated farm houses means they’ve got long sight lines and that nobody will be able to hear you scream for help.

In fantasy land, you’ll never have to leave home, always be 100% aware and have armed guards manning observation posts…but that’s just not reality for most people…especially when there is not a clear and present threat to keep you alert.

Bad guys know that isolated houses are ripe for attack.

It happend in France when Germany invaded. It happend in Eastern Europe when the Soviet Union invaded. It happend in South Africa and several other parts of Africa in the last decade for racial, religious, and political reasons. It happened in Argentina when their economy collapsed. It’s starting to happen with drug dealers attacking isolated homes on the southern border of the US.

Yes, cities are far from perfect, but they do have some benefits over rural areas…people who know each other can look out for each other. People can team up, specialize, be charitable, and undertake big projects like water & sewage treatment. Neighborhoods can hire armed guards or have a community watch that rotates. And when it comes to food, history shows us that farmers will take their crops to where they can get the most money for it.

History also shows us that this will be cities because they have micro-economies that are active and cities have more people competing for goods, which gives the farmer higher prices.

If utilities are cut off, they’ll be restored to population centers before rural areas. If outside aid comes in, it will be delivered to places that have distribution systems in place. If there are only a limited number of vaccines, insulin, anti-biotics, or other specialized drugs, they will be delivered to cities…also because of distribution, infrastructure, and efficiency.

So, even though there are numerous signs that a severe economic downturn is coming soon, don’t feel like you’re going to be the only good person left in your city or town. Just get yourself prepared and do it smartly.

That’s it for this week. Let me know what is making you prepare for surviving disasters in urban areas…finances? medical reasons? are you a first responder and have a duty to stay? Let me know by commenting below.

Until next week.

David Morris

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{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }

+1 Vote -1 Vote +1Evan
May 18, 2010 at 2:55 pm

Hey David,

You might find it of interest, that G M paid back part of its Tarp Money, with yet another loan from TARP money. It was like you or me, pay off one credit card, by transfering the balance to yet another card.

Clearly nothing to worry about there, as it is just the way business is done in Chicago, and D. C.

All the best and keep up the good work!!

Stan Miller @


Vote -1 Vote +1Evan
May 18, 2010 at 2:55 pm

Great article! You make excellent points, as always. In the types of scenarios we’re most likely to face, the suburbs don’t sound so bad! (I still have concerns about “the big it” scenario though…) The main reasons I remain in the midst of a massive, sprawling collection of suburbs consisting of nothing but concrete and steel as far as the eye can see and so bright even at night that you can barely see half a dozen stars… (sorry, grew up in a rural area…) are: my daughter and son-in-law live in this area, and for my job. There is zero chance of course that I would ever leave my daughter or son-in-law behind. They are my first priority. I also have friends and neighbors here. They are good people, almost all of which wouldn’t have a clue what to do in a disaster scenario. This suburban sea spreads out for a loooooong way. Even if they had the gear, I doubt half my friends and neighbors could walk out if they had to on a good day. So, they’d be pretty much stuck here (in the event of EMP or other scenario that makes automobile travel impossible). After reading your article, I can see that both urban and rural areas have their advantages and disadvantages. Thanks for all you do to help us prepare, so that we might be able to help others in return.

Learn, Train, Prepare – and enjoy life!

“It must be, I thought, one of the race’s most persistent and comforting hallucinations to trust that ‘it can’t happen here’; that one’s own little time and place is beyond cataclysms.” – John Wyndham, The Day of the Triffids


Vote -1 Vote +1Evan
May 18, 2010 at 2:55 pm

I’m taking heed of your’s and many others advice. What can you tell me about aquiring extra meds my wife and I need? I can’t think that my regular MD will give me anti-biotics or extra meds for me to stockpile.


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